House prices tell two stories as Lloyds and Nationwide diverge
Lloyds reported the first annual fall in prices since November 2023; Nationwide recorded a 1.6 per cent annual rise. Both agree on one thing: the market is barely moving.
Britain’s housing market sent contradictory signals in August, as the two most-watched house-price indices pointed in opposite directions.
Data from Lloyds showed house prices falling 0.4 per cent on the year in August, the first annual decline since November 2023, with prices down 0.2 per cent on the month. Nationwide, by contrast, reported prices up 1.6 per cent on the year and 0.2 per cent on the month.
The divergence is largely methodological: the two lenders sample different buyers at different stages of the purchase process. But both indices agree on the bigger picture, which is of a market going sideways, constrained by borrowing costs that remain far above the lows of the last decade.
Two indices, two directions, one market that is essentially standing still.British Journal analysis
With Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent and the Bank of England’s committee split on whether rates should rise further, mortgage pricing is unlikely to fall far or fast. Lloyds’ mortgages director Andrew Asaam said the market had faced “a more difficult backdrop”, with sellers choosing to sit tight rather than cut prices and some buyers waiting to see how conditions develop.
The Lloyds index, the successor to the old Halifax measure, put the average property at £298,468 in August. Northern Ireland recorded the strongest annual growth, at 6.9 per cent, with the average property value at a record high of £231,245; Scotland grew 3.5 per cent and Wales 0.6 per cent, while price growth remained under pressure across much of southern England.
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